This article is more than ten years in the making, so bear with me as I set it up.
The past 25 years, I’ve written, talked, and made videos about self-defense, martial arts and related topics. At first, my focus was on how to train and physically defend against aggressors. Over time, it evolved into covering the physiological and psychological aspects of violence. That in turn led to how and why violence happens in societies, which eventually turned me to geopolitics.
Imagine multiple concentric circles of violence: from the small, personal to the global, all-encompassing, each circle influencing the others:
- If enough personal circles collide, we get societal change.
- Geopolitical events have both direct and indirect effects that trickle down to the individual level and can increase or decrease the risk of violence.
From my perspective, it’s all connected.
Below are my thoughts on the bird’s-eye view of current and future societal change, and how it will influence the safety and security of citizens’ daily lives. Some of you will think I’m insane, and that’s fine. There is no way I can explain each point in detail, the accumulation of facts that led to it, or source every claim; there is just too much background to share. Most of all, if I am proven wrong, I will be thrilled.
Too long; didn’t read:
In the coming five to ten years, massive geopolitical change will happen. This influences both societies and their economies, in many cases for the worse. Violence and other dangers will become more prevalent, especially in Western countries. In fact, it has already started and will get worse before it gets better.
I’ll share my current mental model, constructed from years of experience and countless conversations and sources. As long as it serves you, the model is useful. If not, then you tweak it or replace it with a new one.
My model is comprised of several dominant trends and fundamental principles.
Let’s dig in.
Fundamental principles
There are more, but the principles in this list are a good place to start to build the mental model.
Human nature doesn’t change.
We are just as much hardware as we are software, and we carry millions of years of genetic baggage. As a result, certain human reactions to specific events and dynamics in society tend to be predictable.
Violence is a feature, not a bug, of human interaction.
We don’t have to like it and should try to minimize it, but it cannot be fully avoided. Not on the personal level, not between countries or regions.
The only constant is change, and change happens both gradually and suddenly.
Your country can be at peace with its neighbors, only to suddenly be invaded. Or there can be brewing tensions that eventually escalate into war. Both dynamics exist. Societies are neither static nor black/white: they are nuanced and always changing. Think of their aspects in terms of moving on a sliding scale from “great” to “horrible” instead of a fixed position.
Countries have no permanent allies or enemies; they only have interests.
Case in point: There is about twenty years between Al Qaeda terrorizing and traumatizing the USA and one of its leaders receiving a warm welcome in the Oval Office.
History happens at different speeds in different places.
In chaotic periods, it is impossible to predict how bad it will get for each area or individual. But the odds of life getting worse for you definitely go up. For instance, when the Western Roman Empire fell, in certain parts, you could be born and live to see your own children grow up before you even noticed any change. Elsewhere, it happened quickly and ended normal life dramatically and with brutal violence.
Dominant trends
Perfectly predicting the future is impossible, but we do know certain recurring cycles exist (affiliate link) and how specific human dynamics influence societies. The trends I list below are not the only ones that matter, but a mental model cannot encompass everything without losing its practical function.
Here goes.
Ukraine is lost; the consequences follow
Listen back to my talks with Toby since the start of the war, in particular episode 135. We discussed then that Ukraine had no hope of winning anymore, unless NATO troops would (officially…) enter the war and start WWIII. Today, the front is collapsing, Ukrainian forces have been depleted, and Russia advances at an increasing pace. Russia will win an ugly victory, but the conflict will not be settled. It will fester and keep on poisoning international relations for years to come. EU relations with Russia, its biggest neighbour, and the easiest solution to our energy problem increasingly become hostile. This may eventually lead to a hot war Europe has no chance of winning in the near-term.
Ukraine will be a dysfunctional state and take generations to recover. The consequences for all involved in the war highly influence the trends below. There is one off-ramp, though: if the current political class of Western countries is replaced, there is a chance of avoiding part of the coming misery. But that is unlikely. More below.
Western countries are in crisis
There is a massive lack of trust in institutions and the establishment in EU countries and the USA, often rightfully so, as these increasingly fail. Culture wars have divided societies to the breaking point. Ideological fundamentalism, partisanship, and political polarization are omnipresent. Mainstream media more than did its share to make this happen, which in part explains the rise of alternative media, Substack-funded journalists, and the gradual demise of the MSM.
At the same time, daily life gradually becomes expensive, more people struggle to make ends meet, and public services become unreliable or fail. When things break down, governments are slow to respond and take forever to restore normal order. The state is seen as fundamentally unable to fix anything. All this increases the division even more as political tribalism focuses on placing blame instead of solving the issue.
E.g.: Multiple assassination attempts were made on President Trump’s life. Charlie Kirk was killed publicly. These incidents did not become moments to come together or tone down the rhetoric and return to the middle. On the contrary, the extremes grew, and the middle became smaller. Historically, this leads to civil war as opposing sides keep going further in both justifying and using violence on the other group. In more ways than one, the US is already in a state of civil war.
Economic crisis and debt.
The US has a tremendous national debt, and it is rising. There is no realistic path to pay it off anymore. This will eventually lead to a massive crisis.
Many EU countries are also deep in debt, while the continent deindustrializes and unemployment rises. The two biggest factors are massive overregulation and lack of cheap and abundant energy. Though the EU makes tentative efforts to simplify things for entrepreneurs, there is an extremely long road left to go. As for energy, the Green Deal and the closing of nuclear plants make it impossible to quickly scale up reliable energy. This is a necessity to keep many industries going on the continent. The rising industries (AI and robotics) need lots of energy and manufacturing infrastructure. Neither is reliably available in the EU, so they do not replace the loss of the “old” industry.
There are no quick solutions to turn all this around, nor is there a sense of urgency in the political class. So nothing fundamental is done, and the EU economy withers away. The citizens will suffer.
Collapse of the European Union.
European presidents, prime ministers, and chancellors are extremely unpopular with their population and have been for a while. In many countries, if there were elections today, they would be booted out of office. Which means they lack the legitimacy to take decisive action.
As they went all-in on supporting Ukraine, they cannot admit the war is lost, so they keep throwing money (they don’t have) at it. This destroys the welfare state, and citizens wonder why their leaders keep on paying for a war when their own country suffers. This comes on top of the growing anger towards spending on immigrants, asylum seekers and the problems with multiculturalism, an issue that was never addressed openly for decades. This topic then becomes an easy scapegoat and flashpoint to vent overall dissatisfaction.
As a result of the previous, extremist parties on the left and right rise in the polls or dominate elections. Increasingly, populists rise to power with the promise to change things for the better (they won’t) by focusing on national issues over faraway wars. The current leaders won’t go peacefully, though, and hold on to power as long as possible by progressively acting in totalitarian ways using censorship and repression. Angering the population even more and fueling the cycle of collapse.
Simultaneously, EU countries disagree on how to proceed in handling the war and how to position themselves in relation to Russia, eventually making an EU consensus impossible. This infighting destroys the fundamental founding principles of the EU and leads to a breakdown. E.g., our prime minister recently said we should revive the Benelux in importance over the EU. Other countries are on a similar track, which means fracturing the EU into competing sub-groups. With the economy declining, the potential for EU countries to eventually go to war with each other rises. They have done so for over 2000 years, with this last period since 1945 being an exceptional time of relative peace. It won’t take much to revert to the ways of the past.
Collapse of NATO
Ukraine losing the war means NATO loses the war and proves its uselessness. Because Russia didn’t fight Ukraine, it fought Ukraine with the backing of NATO, (unofficial) NATO troops on the ground, NATO officers at the highest command, NATO weapons, including missiles that can only be operated by American or British military personnel, etc. Ukraine still lost.
In addition, EU countries are finally trying to fulfill their obligation to increase defense spending. Unfortunately, they do not have the money, which means more debt. As the economic crisis, civil unrest, and a political changing of the guard collide, they risk being unable to keep up that spending. And hollow NATO out even more.
Regarding both the EU and NATO collapse: They will not necessarily disappear. But they will lose much power or devolve into something different and less, to the point of de facto irrelevance.
Multipolar world
The USA is no longer the only superpower in the world. “The end of history” is over. China is a peer competitor, and Russia is also a superpower. The Western world is in the process of having to swallow this reality after centuries of world dominance.
The US may try an economic war with China, but it will lose, as you can’t fight your factory. Reshoring is possible, but takes many years and is expensive. In the meantime, BRICS rises and the dollar loses ground. A shift towards Asia becomes more attractive to non-Western countries than staying attached to the US.
Whereas the USA has resources, raw materials, and (potential) energy, the EU doesn’t really have any of those to reshore/reboot its economy. Which means it is screwed for the foreseeable future. As a result, the EU increasingly becomes powerless in the world of geopolitics and suffers the whims of the superpowers.
This does not mean all is lost. The USA is massively divided, but it has better cards to recover from this crisis. The EU has no good cards to play and will have to hit rock bottom and replace the current crop of politicians to even begin recovering. This will take massive reform, including getting rid of the Green Deal, which will anger the population even more, as they already paid massively for it. I expect it will take us much longer than the US to stand back up.
In essence:
The West no longer dominates the world and enters an era of humiliation: losing power and relevance to Asia and its partners will be a painful process, as will finding ways to adapt.
Conclusion
All the previous means the potential for violence increases for the average citizen. When the economy fails, civil unrest rises, and institutions no longer function, crime rises, and people are more prone to violence. Countries will change, more than likely sliding gradually closer towards a low-trust society instead of a high-trust one. The potential for rapid, negative change is real.
Doom and gloom, yes. But this too will eventually end.
My blog, the videos I make on Patreon, and my podcast will go on as usual. But some of the topics will be geared towards the goal I have for myself and my loved ones:
Make it to the other side of this chaos, safe and sound.
I hope some of what I share will be useful for you, too.
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